Nomura forecasts EUR/USD to 1.02, toward parity is “very possible” if oil price stays firm

Nomura analyst speaking with Bloomberg TV on Monday:

• EUR/USD towards 1.02 & towards parity is very possible as long
  as oil prices don’t find a way to
  collapse
• U.S yields … U.S rates
  suggest that EUR/USD should be at
  1.01 to 1.03 already and if oil gets to $100/bbl to $110/bbl it’s very easy for the Euro area to see
  their currency weaker because they are
  an energy importer
• EUR/USD … it’s been a zigzag up down up
  down … looks to be
  finally an exit of that range band price
  action … looks more like a
  trend now

On the risks to this lower EUR view:

• the
  main risk is if the US data starts to
  come in soft and U.S yields stop
  climbing

And how the shutdown avoidance supports the USD:

• U.S government shutdown has
  been avoided which means that we’re
  going to get non-farm payrolls, we’re
  going to get the jolts data and
  crucially we’re not going to get all
  those government workers laid off
• it was
  going to be really difficult for the
  market to buy the dollar with initial
  claims jobless claims spiking higher on
  Thursday well that shouldn’t happen now
  thanks to that government shutdown being
  avoided

—

EUR/USD daily chart below. Has it now formed a downtrend, has it busted out of the range? What do the folks pof ForexLive say – let me know in the comments!