Trading & Financial News
No Result
View All Result
Saturday, September 23, 2023
  • Login
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Forex News
  • Investing
  • Stock Trading
  • Crypto
Subscribe
Trading & Financial News
  • Economy
  • Markets
  • Forex News
  • Investing
  • Stock Trading
  • Crypto
No Result
View All Result
Trading & Financial News
No Result
View All Result
Home More

Aussie keeps abreast. Forecast as of 27.07.2023

by Tradinghow
July 27, 2023
in More
A A
0
Aussie keeps abreast. Forecast as of 27.07.2023
152
SHARES
1.9k
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter


2023.07.27 2023.07.27
Aussie keeps abreast. Forecast as of 27.07.2023

Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/

logo

Mixed reports on the Australian domestic data haven’t helped to determine the further AUDUSD trend. However, the Fed created a favorable background for the bulls. Will buyers go ahead? Let us discuss the Forex outlook and make up an AUDUSD trading plan.

Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysis

The Australian dollar jumps up and down. Australia’s strong jobs data and a budget surplus than originally expected cheered up the AUDUSD bulls. However, the firm intention of the RBA to hold rates flat and slow inflation, on the contrary, discourages them. Still, the AUD is rising.

Australia is no different from other advanced economies. Just like anywhere else, the labor market remains resilient to aggressive monetary tightening, and disinflation is underway. One of the reasons is the economy’s lower sensitivity to rate hikes. These trends are based on consumer orientation towards fixed-rate mortgages. However, sooner or later, a 400-basis-point rise in the cash rate since the beginning of the cycle should have an effect. Based on the minutes of the Reserve Bank July meeting, the process has already begun.

The proof is the slowdown in CPI to 6% and core inflation to 5.9% in the second quarter. The figures were lower than expected by Bloomberg experts, which dropped the chances of a rate hike from 4.1% to 4.35% in August from more than 50% after the jobs report, first to 31% and then to 20%. The market does not believe in the continuation of the RBA monetary tightening cycle, which puts pressure on the AUDUSD.

Dynamics of Australian inflation

Source: Bloomberg.

At the same time, the strength of Australia’s economy, the unemployment rate of 3.4%-3.7%, the lowest since June 2022, and employment growth of +32.600 in June, more than twice the forecasts of Bloomberg experts retain the risks of inflation growth to a new high. The RBA should keep abreast, which does not rule out a rate hike after the pause. This has already happened in the current cycle, which sent the AUDUSD up.

In late July, the Aussie is rising amid a favorable foreign environment. The US dollar is weakening. Based on disinflation in the USA, investors believed in the end of the Fed’s monetary tightening cycle, followed by a rate cut. The worse the US data comes out, the more talks about a Fed’s dovish shift. At the same time, the combination of sluggish economic growth and sharply slowing inflation creates an ideal environment for risky assets, including the Australian dollar.

AUDUSD is supported by the yuan strengthening, as well as a slow but steady rise in prices for iron ore, a key component of Australian exports, by 12% from the levels of the May low. Although Chinese domestic data more often disappoint than please, the IMF does not lower its forecast for its GDP for 2023-2024. The organization expects that the recovery of the Chinese economy will accelerate, supporting the Aussie.

IMF projections

Source: Bloomberg.

Monthly AUDUSD trading plan

One could consider the AUDUSD longs on the corrections. The targets of 0.69 and 0.71 are still relevant.

Price chart of AUDUSD in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

Rate this article:

{{value}} ( {{count}} {{title}} )





Source link

  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest

UK Faces Two Decades of No Earnings Growth and More Austerity

July 29, 2023
Emirates Steel drops interest in Thyssenkrupp steel unit

Emirates Steel drops interest in Thyssenkrupp steel unit

July 27, 2023

Learn how to trade. For beginners

July 29, 2023
India’s parliamentary panel says tax dept should conduct evasion searches with caution

India’s parliamentary panel says tax dept should conduct evasion searches with caution

July 27, 2023

High Street Retailers Pin Hopes On Discount Splurge In Black Friday Fever

0

UK Faces Two Decades of No Earnings Growth and More Austerity

0

Learn how to trade. For beginners

0

Trading for beginners

0
Broker’s Call: Blue Dart Express (Buy)

Broker’s Call: Blue Dart Express (Buy)

September 23, 2023
Consensys Announces Sunset of Ganache and Truffle Toolkits, Marking the End of an Era for Ethereum Development

Consensys Announces Sunset of Ganache and Truffle Toolkits, Marking the End of an Era for Ethereum Development

September 23, 2023
Assam’s Biswanath Ghat named ‘Best Tourism Village of India 2023

Assam’s Biswanath Ghat named ‘Best Tourism Village of India 2023

September 23, 2023
The “Asian Games Letterbox” Malaysia Stop Concludes with Resounding Success, with Great Anticipation from the Local Populace for the Asian Games Hangzhou 2022

The “Asian Games Letterbox” Malaysia Stop Concludes with Resounding Success, with Great Anticipation from the Local Populace for the Asian Games Hangzhou 2022

September 23, 2023

Recent News

Broker’s Call: Blue Dart Express (Buy)

Broker’s Call: Blue Dart Express (Buy)

September 23, 2023
Consensys Announces Sunset of Ganache and Truffle Toolkits, Marking the End of an Era for Ethereum Development

Consensys Announces Sunset of Ganache and Truffle Toolkits, Marking the End of an Era for Ethereum Development

September 23, 2023

Categories

  • Business
  • Crypto
  • Economy
  • Forex News
  • Investing
  • Markets
  • More
  • Stock Trading
  • Trading for beginners

Site Navigation

  • Home
  • Contact Us
  • Stock Trading
  • Markets
  • Investing
  • Other Links
  • Privacy & Policy
Trading & Financial News

We bring you the fastest breaking news on Trading, forex, and finance submitted from credible and reliable news sources around the world.

© 2023 Tradinghow Useful forex analysis and financial news, submitted credible news sources around the world from tradinghow.

No Result
View All Result
  • Contact Us
  • Home
  • Economy
  • Crypto
  • Investing
  • Markets
  • Forex News
  • Stock Trading

© 2023 Tradinghow Useful forex analysis and financial news, submitted credible news sources around the world from tradinghow.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In