USDJPY technicals: USDJPY ping-pongs between moving averages

The USDJPY has spent this week trading in a well-defined range, bouncing between the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 147.90 and the 200-bar moving average below at 146.78. The 100-bar MA capped rallies on both Monday and Friday, while the 200-bar MA provided support on Tuesday, Thursday, and again today.

As of now, the pair is trading near 147.67, just below the upper boundary of that range. Heading into next week, these moving averages will remain key risk and bias-defining levels. A sustained break above or below will likely set the directional tone.

Fundamentally, the market continues to grapple with diverging central bank policies. The Fed is expected to cut rates in the coming months, while the Bank of Japan is seen inching toward policy normalization. All else equal, that bias would favor USDJPY downside. However, factors like evolving tariff policy, rate path clarity, and broader risk sentiment add complexity to the equation.

Bottom line:

Continue to monitor the 100-bar and 200-bar MAs on the 4-hour chart. A clear break from this range could trigger momentum-driven price action. Stay nimble and let the technicals guide the bias as the fundamental story develops.