Understanding the Shift in Consumer Behavior

Can you tell us more about the role the Market Intelligence Desk team plays within Nasdaq?

The Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk (MID) is a specialized team that provides Nasdaq-listed companies with real-time market insights concerning trading activity in their stock and industry, as well as insight into news and developments impacting the markets. Each listed company is assigned a dedicated MID Director, who offers tailored support, including alerts on unusual trading activity, peer comparisons, technical commentary and macroeconomic updates to name a few. This proactive engagement helps investor relations teams and executives stay informed on the day-to-day trading activity in their stock and industry. Our goal is to be a trusted source to our listed clients.

On top of this, our team executes all first trade IPOs for newly Nasdaq listed companies. This includes managing the IPO Cross, coordinating with underwriters and executing their first trade as a publicly listed company. This dual role as MID Director and Nasdaq Execution Officer (NEO) allows us to serve as a relationship builder not only for the management team of the listed clients, but also for the underwriting teams trading desk and investment bankers.

Consumer spending has been relatively strong, but we’re beginning to see the impact of tariffs in recent CPI reports. How are you seeing these changes impact our listed companies?

The current economic landscape is marked by a mix of positive and concerning indicators.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is considered a key gauge of inflation because it measures the average change over time (monthly and annually) in the prices paid by consumers for everyday items. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices of good to consumers while monthly retail sales reports provide insight into the health of the consumer and thus the economy. Consumer spend accounts for nearly two-thirds of U.S. GDP.

Total CPI was up 0.3% (month/month) in June following a 0.1% increase in May. That left total CPI up 2.7% year‐over‐year, versus 2.4% in May. Core CPI (which excludes food and energy), has risen by 0.2% (M/M), which was slightly better than expected, but price increases in apparel and furnishings raise concerns about tariff-driven inflation. The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained unchanged (M/M), supporting a disinflationary narrative favorable to the Federal Reserve. Retail sales showed a 0.6% increase in June, signaling renewed consumer strength, while initial jobless claims continue to decline, indicating a solid labor market. Consumer sentiment has improved to a five-month high, reflecting better inflation expectations.

Consumer behavior is shifting in response to economic uncertainties. Many stockpiled due to inflation fears and supply chain concerns, necessitating real-time sales monitoring to respond to volatile spending patterns. Lower-income consumers delayed many non-essential purchases, relying more on buy-now-pay-later services and opting for private-label or discount brands. In contrast, higher-income consumers continue to show resilient spending patterns, particularly in discretionary categories and financial products.

Corporate guidance reflects mixed performance across sectors. Many companies have lowered their sales and profit forecasts, citing uneven sector performance and margin pressures. Even strong performers face challenges with inventory management. Tariff and cost pressures remain significant, with companies revising sourcing strategies and delaying capital expenditures due to tariff uncertainty. The U.S. tariff landscape is highly fluid, creating pricing and sourcing challenges for brands and complicating operational planning.