NZDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting while dropping the tightening bias in the
  statement but adding a slight pushback against a March rate cut.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed
  that they want to see more evidence of inflation falling back to target and
  that a rate cut in March is not their base case.
• The US CPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month with the disinflationary trend
  reversing.
• The US PPI beat
  expectations across the board by a big margin.
• The US Initial Claims beat
  expectations while Continuing Claims missed. Overall, the data remains steady.
• The ISM Manufacturing
  PMI
  surprised to the upside with the new orders index, which is considered a
  leading indicator, jumping back into expansion. Similarly, the ISM Services PMI beat
  expectations across the board with the employment sub-index erasing the prior
  drop and prices paid jumping above 60.
• The US Retail Sales missed
  expectations across the board by a big margin.
• The market now expects the first rate cut in June.

NZD

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
  unchanged at the
  last meeting stating that demand growth continues to ease and it’s expected to
  decline further with monetary conditions remaining restrictive.
• The New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations
  supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.
• The labour market report beat expectations across the
  board with lower unemployment rate and higher wage growth.
• The Manufacturing PMI improved in January remaining in
  contraction while the Services PMI jumped back into expansion.
• The market expects the first cut in
  August.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD has been
rallying steadily since bouncing on the key support around
the 0.6050 level. The price recently broke above a key resistance around the
0.6160 level where we had also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. The
buyers should now start targeting the 0.64 handle while the sellers will need
some key breaks on the lower timeframes to gain back some conviction for new
lows.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the
key resistance zone around the 0.6160 level. In case of a retest of the broken resistance now turned support, we can
expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to position for
a rally into the 0.64 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and pile in for a drop
back into the lows.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
latest leg higher diverged with
the MACD which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, it should be a signal for a pullback into the support
where the buyers will also find the trendline for
confluence. If the price were to break lower though, the reversal would be
confirmed, and the sellers will likely pile in more aggressively to target new
lows.

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