November US ISM manufacturing index 48.2 vs 49.0 expected

• Prior month 48.7
• ISM Manufacturing PMI index 48.2 vs. 49.0 expected
• Prices Paid 58.5 vs 57.0 estimate. Prior month 58.0
• Employment index 44.0 vs 46.0 last month.
• New orders 47.4 vs 49.4 last month
• Production 51.4 vs 48.2 last month
• Supplier deliveries 49.3 vs 54.2 last month.
• Inventories 48.9 vs 45.8 last month.
• Customer inventories 44.7 vs 43.9 last month.
• Backlog of orders 44.0 vs 47.9 last month
• New Export orders 46.2 vs 44.5 last month
• Imports 48.9 vs 45.4 last month

What respondents are saying:

“New order entries are within the forecast. We have increased requests from customers to get their orders sooner. Transit time on imports seems to be longer.” (Machinery)

“We are starting to institute more permanent changes due to the tariff environment. This includes reduction of staff, new guidance to shareholders, and development of additional offshore manufacturing that would have otherwise been for U.S. export.” (Transportation Equipment)

“Tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in building construction.” (Chemical Products)

“No major changes at this time, but going into 2026, we expect to see big changes with cash flow and employee head count. The company has sold off a big part of the business that generated free cash while offering voluntary severance packages to anyone.” (Petroleum & Coal Products)

“Business conditions remain soft as a result of higher costs from tariffs, the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)

“The unstable market has made pricing fluctuate in a very volatile way; I have had to reduce suppliers for raw materials to maintain a better direct cost structure. Reducing my suppliers has reduced the availability of some items and created longer lead times.” (Fabricated Metal Products)

“Business continues to be a struggle regarding long-term sourcing decisions based on tariffs and landing costs. External (or international) sourcing remains the lowest-cost solution compared to U.S. production/manufacturing. The delta is smaller now, reducing margins.” (Computer & Electronic Products)

“The government shutdown has impacted our access to agricultural data, impacting agricultural markets and, as a result, decisions we make. Optimism for a tariff exemption on palm oil percolated but hasn’t come to fruition at this time.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

“Trade confusion. At any given point, trade with our international partners is clouded and difficult. Suppliers are finding more and more errors when attempting to export to the U.S. — before I even have the opportunity to import. Freight organizations are also having difficulties overseas, contending with changing regulations and uncertainty. Conditions are more trying than during the coronavirus pandemic in terms of supply chain uncertainty.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

“Domestic and export business have been lackluster. Our customers are taking prompt orders only and still don’t have confidence to build inventory, much less make expansion plans. In fact, most of any kind of ‘planning’ has been undermined by unpredictability due to inconsistent messaging from Washington. Artificial intelligence is in its infancy stages, producing confusing and most often inaccurate information. This also causes apprehensive consumer buying patterns, contributing to the challenge of forecasting demand.” (Wood Products)

Some common themes from respondents:

• Tariffs are the dominant drag, raising costs, reducing demand, shrinking margins, and forcing firms to rethink sourcing, staffing, and investment plans.

• Economic and policy uncertainty is high, with companies citing government shutdown effects, inconsistent messaging from Washington, and volatile market conditions.

• Supply chain challenges persist, including longer lead times, transit delays, reduced supplier availability, and logistical complications in international trade.

• Demand remains soft, with customers ordering cautiously, avoiding inventory builds, and showing limited confidence in future conditions.

• Companies are restructuring, including staff reductions, divestitures, offshore manufacturing development, and tighter purchasing strategies.

• Pricing pressures are volatile, driven by tariffs and unstable markets, forcing firms to adjust sourcing and pricing models.

• Forecasting is difficult, with unpredictable trade conditions and unreliable data (including agricultural data disruptions and early-stage/poor-quality AI information)