Negative opening seen for Nifty, Sensex

Domestic markets are expected to open on a slightly negative note on Thursday amid weak global cues. Gift Nifty at at 24,770 signals a gap-down opening of about 60-70 points for Nifty. Analysts expect the market lacks triggers and will remain in consolidation mode.

In a midweek review, Emkay Global Research said that it remains constructive on Indian equities following the 10 per cent Nifty rally since the 9-Apr-25 lows. “The earnings cycle has likely bottomed, after a relatively resilient 4QFY25 reporting season. We expect earnings upgrades for FY26, led by softer commodity prices, demand recovery, and monetary easing. Our preference for small and mid-caps (SMIDs) continues, primarily because we like SMID-heavy sectors such as discretionary and materials over large-cap dominated sectors like financials and staples. We believe worries over valuations are misplaced, with fundamentals providing strong support,” it said.

Morgan Stanley, global investment advisor, expects the benchmark BSE Sensex to hit 89,000 by June 2026, indicating a growth of around 8 per cent from the current level. In a bull case scenario (30 per cent probability), BSE Sensex can hit 100,000, it predicted. “

Meanwhile, most equities across the Asia-Pacific region are ruling weak in the region o f0.2 per cent to 1.3 per cent in early deal on Thursday, tracking weakness from the US stocks. Overnight, all major indices in the US closed in the red.

On the F&O front, FPIs continued to load up on short contracts in the futures market, and the index’s inability to reclaim upper resistance suggests a persistent bearish undertone, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities. In the derivatives arena, the mood remains downbeat. “Call writers are getting aggressive at higher levels, while put writers are sliding down to safer zones—a textbook red flag. Hefty call writing at distant strikes underscores a capped upside unless a strong buying catalyst enters the scene.=,” he further cautioned.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) nudged higher from 0.49 to 0.60, but sentiment still leans bearish. India VIX inched up another 0.93%, ending the day at 17.54. “While the rise isn’t explosive, this marks the third straight session of subtle upticks, reflecting unease in the backdrop,” he further said.

Published on May 22, 2025