Markets open flat as investors await US-India trade deal clarity

Markets opened on a subdued note Thursday morning, with the Sensex opening at 82,753.53, slightly higher than its previous close of 82,634.48, but easing to 82,557.72 at 9:52 am, down 76.76 points or 0.09 per cent. The Nifty 50 also opened at 25,230.75 compared to its previous close of 25,212.05, and declined to 25,190.35 at 9.52 am, shedding 21.70 points or 0.09 per cent. The benchmarks appeared to be in a wait-and-watch mode as investors looked for fresh triggers to propel the Nifty beyond its all-time high of 26,277.35.

“Markets appear to be in a wait-and-watch mode, eyeing a major trigger to scale Nifty’s all-time high of 26,277.35. Hopes are pinned on a favourable outcome from the US-India tariff deal,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd. Market participants are closely monitoring developments on the trade front, with speculation that a tariff rate significantly below 20 per cent could trigger a sharp rally.

The morning session saw mixed performance across sectors, with metals leading gains while technology and banking stocks faced selling pressure. Among the top gainers on the Nifty 50, Hindalco Industries emerged as the frontrunner, surging 0.82 per cent to ₹672.25, followed by Apollo Hospitals Enterprise at ₹7,400.50, up 0.65 per cent. Tata Consumer Products gained 0.52 per cent to ₹1,087.10, while State Bank of India climbed 0.50 per cent to ₹835.90 on reports of a potential ₹25,000 crore qualified institutional placement.

On the downside, Tech Mahindra led the losers, declining 1.24 per cent to ₹1,588.00 despite reporting strong quarterly numbers with net profit rising 34 per cent year-on-year. Eternal Ltd fell 1.12 per cent to ₹259.40, while SBI Life Insurance dropped 1.06 per cent to ₹1,809.70. ICICI Bank and Wipro also traded in negative territory, down 0.95 per cent and 0.88 per cent respectively.

“There are no triggers for the market to break out of the consolidation range in which it has been stuck for two months now. Even an India-US interim trade deal has been discounted by the market, leaving no scope for a sharp rally decisively breaking the range,” observed Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

The first quarter earnings season kicked off Thursday with results from CEAT, Heritage Foods, HDFC AMC, LTI Mindtree, Axis Bank, Polycab and Wipro. Market participants are particularly focused on the performance of IT sector companies, which continue to face headwinds. “Results of the IT sector continue to disappoint and, therefore, this can remain a drag on the overall market,” Vijayakumar noted.

Banking stocks remained under pressure as the market discounted potential net interest margin compression in Q1 results. However, analysts believe this presents a buying opportunity. “Leading private sector banks are in a defensive mode now. The market is discounting NIM compression in the Q1 results. But this will reverse from Q3 onwards making them good buys now,” Vijayakumar explained.

From a technical perspective, the market showed signs of strengthening momentum. “The index witnessed a bullish follow-up candle after forming a Morning Star pattern at key support yesterday. This indicates strengthening momentum,” said Mandar Bhojane, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited. For sustained upward movement, the Nifty must hold above 25,330, with upside resistance seen at 25,600-25,700.

Foreign Institutional Investors continued their selling spree, offloading equities worth ₹1,858 crore on July 16, while Domestic Institutional Investors remained consistent buyers for the eighth straight session, infusing ₹1,223 crore. “The broader trend remains optimistic as long as key support levels are respected. With positive domestic sentiment and technical confirmation, traders should look for bullish opportunities, especially in banking and large-cap spaces,” Bhojane added.

The commodities market showed resilience with gold and silver recovering from earlier losses. “Gold and silver showed strong intraday recovery in a choppy trading session, triggered by market rumours surrounding the Fed Chairman’s potential firing,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd. Crude oil climbed toward $66.75, snapping a three-session losing streak as traders reacted to better-than-expected economic data from major oil consumers.

HDFC Bank emerged as a stock in focus, trading near its all-time high following the announcement of a bonus issue. The lender is also expected to declare a dividend during its upcoming board meeting on July 19. “These developments will enhance investors’ confidence and shape broader market trends,” noted VLA Ambala, Co-Founder, Stock Market Today.

With the India VIX remaining low at 11.24, market volatility appeared contained. As the weekly expiry session unfolds, analysts expect the Nifty to trade within the 25,400 to 25,040 range, with PSU and media sectors likely to provide support in the near term.

Published on July 17, 2025