Mark Carney’s first budget as Canadian Prime Minister will be released Nov 4

Mark Carney’s first budget as prime minister will be released November 4. It was hinted for October but it’s now scheduled for November 4. Finance Minister Champagne made the announcement in the House of Commons.

This is likely to be the most-significant budget in many years, as Carney tries to chart a course away from the United States and encourage nation-building projects. Some of the measures around home building have already been floated and I would expect more leaks in the weeks to come. Critical will be tax policy, which is less likely to leak but will have a big impact on bonds and the Canadian dollar. Carney already announced a tax cut on income below $58,000 to 14% from 15% which is probably all for regular tax payers but corporate rates could be lowered in response to US tax cuts.

Economists see a deficit of around C$70 billion this year, a big jump from $40 billion forecast in January, in large part due to the US trade war. Carney has been trying to draw a line between the operating deficit and deficits driven by short-term investment spending in things like ports, railways and nation-building projects.