Locked and loaded for the April edition of non-farm payrolls

It’s a big day in financial markets as we get non-farm payrolls at 8:30 am ET followed by the ISM services report 90 minutes later.

The dollar is moderately softer on the day ahead of non-farm payrolls in a sign of some position squaring ahead of the data. Since the FOMC, the market has priced in an additional 10 bps of Fed easing this year (40 bps vs 30 bps) but there will be good swings in that based on today’s data.

The low estimate in the Refinitiv survey is +150K from Pantheon and I asked chief economist Ian Shepherdson why and here’s what he said: