How High Will XRP Rise on October’s ETF Approval?

Created on September 29, 2025

Will Ripple’s recent strong rise be the catalyst for XRP price to finally break into the double-digit zone?

Spot XRP ETFs are Coming

Market participants are waiting for the altcoin ETF “foodgates” to be opened as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approaches critical deadlines for spot XRP ETF decisions in October 2025.

With over a dozen applications under review, including filings from major players like Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, and Grayscale, the regulatory green light appears certain.

Odds by Polymarket bettors have skyrocketed, placing the possibilities of at least one spot XRP ETF approval by Dec. 31, 2025, at over 99%—effectively a certainty in the eyes of professional traders.

Popular ETF analyst Nate Geraci has echoed this sentiment, saying that the number of crypto ETF filings before the SEC means that “crypto ETF floodgates are set to open soon.”

Source: Nate Geraci on X

Bloomberg ETF analysts place their estimates at 95% or higher, citing the resolution of Ripple’s long-standing SEC lawsuit earlier this year as a pivotal factor that has cleared the path for institutional adoption.

This regulatory momentum gained explosive traction with the debut of the REX-Osprey XRPR ETF on Sept. 18, 2025—the first US-listed fund offering direct spot exposure to XRP under the Investment Company Act of 1940.

Trading on the Cboe exchange under the ticker XRPR, the product smashed records by attracting a massive $37.7 million in first-day volume, the highest for any ETF launch in 2025. This figure eclipsed even the much-hyped $IVES ETF and was five times the debut volume of earlier XRP futures-based products, signaling robust demand from both retail and institutional investors. Within just 90 minutes of opening, XRPR had already surpassed $24 million in turnover, underscoring XRP’s appeal as a bridge asset for fast, low-cost cross-border payments.

As October’s decision windows open—starting with VanEck’s filing on Oct. 10—the XRPR’s performance has poured fuel on expectations, potentially unlocking billions in inflows and potentially propelling XRP price to new all-time highs.

Q4 Historically Best for XRP Price

XRP’s track record in the fourth quarter of the year reveals a consistent pattern of outperformance, making Q4 a seasonally favorable window that could amplify October’s ETF-driven gains.

Since 2013, XRP has delivered positive returns in Q4 periods, averaging over 150% gains during bull market cycles. The standout year was 2017, when XRP exploded from $0.20 to $2.30 by December—a 1,060% Q4 surge—fueled by early adoption in cross-border payments and broader crypto euphoria.

Most recently, XRP rallied about 240% in Q4/2024 and 20% in Q4/2023. Year-over-year, Q4 has outperformed other quarters by 2.5x, with an average close of 200% above Q3 lows, per CryptoRank data.

XRP Historic Quarterly Returns. Source: Cryptorank

With 2025’s ETF catalyst layering atop this history, analysts project Q4 returns could eclipse 300%, pushing XRP toward $10–$20 as institutional FOMO collides with proven seasonality.

Analysts Target $15-$30 XRP Price

The XRP/USD pair is expected to resume its prevailing bullish momentum despite the price correction over the last two months, as it paints a classic technical structure with an upside outlook.

The XRP price action has formed a “bull pennant” pattern in the weekly time frame, as shown in the chart below. A bull pennant is a bullish continuation pattern that forms when the price consolidates lower in a descending triangle (pennant) following a strong move upward (flagpole).

The pattern is resolved when the price breaks above the pennant’s upper trendline, typically rising by as much as the flagpole’s height.

In XRP’s case, the bull pushed the price above the triangle’s upper trendline at $2.20 in June, confirming an upward breakout. The validation is still in play with the altcoin’s price expected to hit the measured target of the prevailing chart pattern at $15, a 430% uptick from the current price.

XRP/USD Weekly Chart Featuring a Bull Pennant Pattern. Source: TradingView

XRP’s weekly relative strength index is still moving within the positive region at 54, suggesting that the market conditions still favor the upside in higher timeframes.

Popular XRP analyst XForceGlobal pointed out that the more XRP consolidated around $2.75, the stronger the breakout, adding that the price could rise as high as $20-$30 in October.

Source: XForceGlobal on X

Fellow analyst Egrag Crypto set XRP price targets between $15 and $27, citing a strong technical setup.

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