Global sentiment to hurt Sensex, Nifty at open

Domestic markets are expected to open on a cautious note amid weakness in global markets. Gift Nifty at 26,140 signals that the Nifty could lose about 80 points at open.

The focus will be on macro indicators and global sentiment, said analysts, as the Q2 result season has almost come to an end. 

The risk-off mood sets a cautious tone for the Indian market, with global volatility likely to dictate early trade dynamics, said analysts. 

“The risk-off mood sets a cautious tone for Indian markets today, with global volatility likely to dictate early trade dynamics. Given that today marks the weekly Friday close, the market is expected to trade within a consolidation range. Global weakness may keep the upside in check, and selective profit-booking cannot be ruled out. However, despite the near-term caution, the broader trend for India remains constructive, with underlying sentiment still supportive of dips being absorbed.,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.

Equities across Asia Pacific region are down sharply. The Nikkei is trading with 2 per cent lower while Korean markets rolling 3 per cent lower in early deal on Friday, following a sharp weakness in the US market.

Meanwhile, growth in the Index of Eight Core Industries stood at zero per cent in October 2025, down from 3.8 per cent in October of the previous year and 3 per cent in September this year. October’s performance is the worst since August last year, when the index had contracted 1.5 per cent. The eight core industries — coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement, and electricity — together account for 40.27 per cent of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP).

“Given the deterioration in the performance of the mining and electricity segments, ICRA expects the IIP growth to ease somewhat to ~2.5-3.5% in October 2025 from 4.0% in September 2025, even as the growth in manufacturing is likely to remain healthy aided by higher demand during the festive season on account of the GST rate rationalisation and the ensuing restocking.,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Ltd.

Trading in derivative signals a cautious tone.

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, the derivatives landscape continues to reflect a constructive undertone and strong optimism. “Call writers have been persistently shifting their positions to higher strike prices, while put writers are accumulating substantial open interest at nearby strikes—indicating a firmly bullish phase. A significant open interest build-up of nearly 1.17 crore contracts at the 26,500 call strike highlights its importance as a major resistance ceiling. Meanwhile, heavily put OI—approximately 1.54 crore contracts—at the 26,000 strike reaffirms strong support at lower levels,” he added.

Simultaneous aggressive additions in put writing, along with unwinding and upward rollovers by call writers, underline firm bullish positioning and a sustained positive bias. “The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has risen sharply to 1.50 from 1.33, mirroring heightened optimism, though it also suggests mildly overheated sentiment where minor profit-taking cannot be ruled out,” he further said.

Published on November 21, 2025