GBPUSD: sellers press, but key support looms

The GBPUSD rebound has petered out just below the underside of the broken trend-line and the 200-hour moving average (~1.35136). That confluence allowed sellers to cap the advance and shove price back under the 100-hour MA (~1.3480).

With momentum now fading, focus shifts to the next technical decision point:

• Immediate resistance – 100-hour MA 1.3480; 200-hour MA / trend-line 1.3513.

• Crucial support – yellow swing area 1.3455-1.3473 and the 38.2 % retrace of the May-to-June rise at 1.3455.

A clean break below 1.3455 and the 38.2% of the move up from the May low at 1.3445, would open the door toward a swing level at 1.3414 and the 50 % level near 1.33869. Conversely, reclaiming 1.35136 would neutralise the downside and shift the bias back higher and toward 1.3590 and last week’s high at 1.36337.

Fundamentally in the UK this week:

UK-data wrap (this week):

• Wed 18 Jun – UK CPI (May): Headline inflation slipped to 3.4 % YoY (prev 3.5 %), core eased to 3.5 %, while services stayed sticky at 5 %+; drop kept BoE-cut bets alive but lingering price pressure tempered sterling losses.

• Thu 19 Jun – BoE MPC: Bank Rate held at 4.25 % with a unexpectedly dovish 6-3 vote split; minutes flagged softer wage growth and labour-market slack, signaling a data-dependent but “gradual and careful” path to easing—initially capping GBP upside.

• Fri 20 Jun – UK Retail Sales (May): Volumes plunged -2.7 % m/m (cons -0.5 %), the sharpest drop since Dec-23; broad-based weakness revived growth worries and nudged GBPUSD lower in early trade.

Chart & analysis: Greg Michalowski, ForexLive.com — author of “Attacking Currency Trends”

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