Ex-BoJ member Adachi: October rate hike cannot be ruled out

• BoJ likely to revise up economic, price forecasts in October quarterly outlook report
• Rate hike cannot be ruled out if solid Q2 GDP growth leads to upgrade in board’s growth, price forecasts
• If BoJ focuses on risks, it will likely hold off raising interest rates until March 2026
• A BoJ rate hike to 0.75% will likely do little harm to Japan’s economic growth

Adachi’s term expired in March, so he’s no longer part of the board. Former BoJ member don’t have insider information but they can offer educated guesses on the next BoJ moves given their experience as policymakers.

Having said that, the market has been pricing in high chances of a rate hike this year for a very long time, so it won’t make a difference if it’s in October or December. What matters for the markets is what follows that rate hike or whether further rate hikes are completely off the table.