Crude Oil Analysis Today (29 April, 2025)

Crude Oil Analysis: Bearish Pressure Intensifies, Key Levels to Watch

Crude Oil futures (CL) are currently trading at $61.13, reflecting an ongoing bearish sentiment across multiple timeframes. Integrating daily chart analysis, intraday volume profile, VWAP indicators, and order flow data reveals a cohesive picture of sustained bearish pressure, making the upcoming price moves highly significant.

Daily Chart Context: Modified Schiff Pitchfork Analysis

Analyzing crude oil’s daily chart with a Modified Schiff Pitchfork clearly indicates a persistent bearish channel formation. Price recently failed to sustain attempts near the median equilibrium line (around $63–$64), signaling ongoing seller dominance. This rejection solidified bearish confidence, as crude prices now target the lower channel boundary around $58–$59. This structural perspective strongly favors bearish continuation, with limited bullish potential unless prices decisively breach the median equilibrium above $64.

Intraday Perspective: Volume Profile and VWAP Dynamics

Zooming into the intraday 30-minute range bar chart, additional precision emerges. The price trades slightly below the intraday VWAP ($61.32), underscoring short-term bearish control. The current price ($61.13) resides near a significant high-volume node (HVN) around $61.33–$61.49, representing an immediate resistance area. This HVN acts as an equilibrium, and the inability to reclaim VWAP and sustain above this HVN has reinforced intraday bearish conviction.

Further volume profile analysis highlights key levels:

• Immediate support at approximately $60.71.

• Stronger psychological and structural support around $60.40.

• Deeper support levels at $59.48 and ultimately $58.52 align closely with the daily chart’s bearish targets.

The recent price action—marked by consolidation near key supports and persistent inability to reclaim VWAP—signals potential distribution and an impending bearish continuation.

Order Flow Analysis: Confirming the Bearish Scenario

The recent volumetric and order flow analysis strongly confirms bearish sentiment. Sellers remain dominant, reflected by persistently negative Delta figures, a reduction in buying interest, and notably brief bullish attempts that quickly fail. The most recent data reinforces the bearish thesis, depicting sellers aggressively absorbing any short-lived bullish effort.

Notably, recent intraday attempts to reverse upward proved short-lived, characterized by bullish exhaustion and rapid bearish resurgence. This scenario aligns with classic bear-trap dynamics, further increasing the likelihood of continued downside momentum.

Integrated Prediction and Key Levels:

Given the confluence of bearish signals across daily structure, intraday VWAP rejection, volume profile distribution, and bearish order flow dominance, crude oil futures exhibit a high probability of continued downward pressure.

Key immediate resistance remains clearly defined around $61.32 (VWAP) to $61.49 (HVN). Until crude oil futures manage to sustain trade above these critical intraday resistance points with supporting bullish delta and volume signals, traders should anticipate further downside.

The primary bearish targets include:

• Initial intraday support: $60.71.

• Key intraday psychological level: $60.40.

• Intermediate daily support: $59.48.

• Critical lower daily channel support: $58.52.

Strategic Trading Recommendations for Crude Oil Traders Today:

This is not financial advice. Visit ForexLive.com (evolving to be investingLive.com later this year) for additional perseptives.

Bearish traders: Remain actively focused on short positions around VWAP ($61.32) and HVN resistance ($61.49). Profit-taking is prudent at incremental supports, securing gains progressively as price approaches critical lower targets.

Bullish traders: Maintain a cautious stance. A clear bullish reversal demands sustained price acceptance above $61.49 and intraday VWAP, reinforced by bullish order flow confirmation. Until this happens, the bullish scenario remains speculative and highly risky.

The technical alignment of long-term bearish channel dynamics, intraday bearish VWAP positioning, distinct bearish volume profile structure, and decisive bearish order flow creates an overwhelmingly bearish market outlook. The immediate bearish scenario is both clear and actionable, with traders advised to closely watch price reactions at critical support levels for further strategic adjustments.

Given the current price of crude oil futures ($61.13) trading below the critical intraday VWAP ($61.32), bearish momentum remains dominant, highlighting a high probability for further downside price exploration in the near term.

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