China Manufacturing PMI (August 2025) 49.4 (expected 49.5) Services 50.3 (expected 50.3)

These Chinese PMIs come from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).

For August 2025:

Manufacturing PMI 49.4, a slight miss

• expected 49.5, prior 49.3
• this is the fifth consecutive month in contraction for the official manufacturing PMI
• domestic demand remains disappointing, weighed down by factors such as
  • the heavily indebted property sector and falling or, at best, flat prices for homes
  • US tariffs hitting exports
  • local government debt
  • recent extreme weather/flooding

Non-Manufacturing (includes services and construction) PMI 50.3, in line with central estimates and a jump from July

• expected 50.3, prior 50.1

Composite 50.5

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Over the next few days we’ll get the ‘unofficial’ Caixin/S&P manufacturing (on Monday September 1) and non-manufacturing (on Wednesday September 3) PMIs for August.

more to come

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Earlier big news:

The legal fight is not over (see the post) but perhaps China will just wait it out on tariffs.