Broker’s call: Asian Paints (Sell)

Target: ₹2,570

CMP: ₹2,878.90

Asian Paints’ net sales declined 0.6 per cent y-o-y (5 per cent growth estimated) in Q4, as the domestic decorative coatings business decelerated 1.8 per cent, hit by price cuts, higher discounts and downtrading (volumes grew by 10 per cent).

In Q4, urban areas drove growth with double-digit volume increase, while rural areas saw slightly slower growth. The economy segment grew on the back of consumers downtrading from the premium segment. But the luxury segment witnessed notable traction in Q4. The waterproofing segment experienced significant growth, supported by the projects business. New product launches contributed 11 per cent to FY24 sales. Auto coatings and general industrial coatings exhibited stronger growth of 10 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively, buoyed by robust performances in auto OEM coatings and protective and powder coatings.

APNT foresees double-digit volume growth to continue given the rural pickup in Q1FY25. With the recent launch of Neo Bharat latex paint, a product strategically aimed to tap the vast distemper and low-cost emulsion market valued at ₹5,000 crore, APNT is poised to fuel growth in the economy segment.

Going forward, value growth is projected to trail volume growth by 5-6 per cent, even as APNT anticipates a slower pace of downtrading in FY25.