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Home Economy

Australia preliminary PMI: Manufacturing 48.0 (prior 48.7) & Services 47.6 (prior 51.8)

by Tradinghow
October 23, 2023
in Economy, Stock Trading
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Australia preliminary PMI: Manufacturing 48.0 (prior 48.7) & Services 47.6 (prior 51.8)
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Preliminary S&P Global / Judo Bank flash PMIs from Australia for October 2023.

Wow, an ugly set of numbers. Services have plunged back into contraction.

Commentary from the report. in summary

  • New orders weakened in October and are below the
    50 neutral level, indicative of a soft landing across the
    economy. The Output and the New Orders Index would
    have to fall substantially further to be consistent with a
    broader economic recession.
  • the slowdown in business activity
    thus far has not translated into a significant reduction in
    hiring intentions. Australian businesses are still looking to
    expand their workforce, consistent with ongoing net new
    job creation in the official employment report.
  • Of most significant concern is further evidence of
    inflation ‘stickiness’. That is, both the input and output
    price indexes remain elevated and do not signal a return
    of inflation to the RBA’s target anytime soon.
  • The RBA will receive the final October readings before
    the board meeting on Melbourne Cup day. These latest
    results should not materially impact the interest rate
    decision. A strong case exists for a further modest
    upward adjustment to the Australian cash rate target,
    to ensure the economy remains on the so-called ‘narrow
    path’. If we are to avoid recession, Australia will need
    an extended period of below-trend growth to ensure
    inflation returns to target by 2025.



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