Africa’s GDP is projected to increase from $2.3 trillion in 2023 to $2.8 trillion by 2025, as reported by the IMF.

The data, also visualized by Visual Capitalist, reflects the continent’s uneven growth trajectory, where smaller countries are recording impressive percentage gains, while some of the largest economies are projected to contract significantly.

In 2024, South Africa led the continent with a GDP of $373 billion, followed closely by Egypt at $347 billion, while Algeria ($267 billion) and Nigeria ($253 billion) rounded out the top four. This marked a dramatic shift, as Nigeria, once Africa’s biggest economy, slipped to fourth place due to currency devaluation, inflationary pressures, and over-reliance on oil exports.

At the other end of the spectrum, São Tomé and Príncipe registered a GDP of just $0.8 billion, underscoring the stark economic disparities between Africa’s largest and smallest economies. Only seven African nations managed to surpass the $100 billion GDP mark, with none located in the Central Africa region.

Key sectors such as oil and gas, mining, agriculture, and manufacturing continued to shape output across the continent. Resource-rich nations like Nigeria, Angola, and Libya maintained high aggregate GDP figures, while less diversified economies struggled to achieve comparable prosperity.

Population size remained a decisive factor: large, populous countries such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Egypt consistently featured near the top of GDP rankings, reflecting their consumer markets and labor force potential even as GDP per capita figures told a more constrained story.

While Africa’s economic giants continue to dominate by size, some of the most rapid growth rates between 2023 and 2025 are being recorded in smaller economies.

Burundi leads with a 58.9 percent surge in GDP, followed by Guinea at 32.3 percent, Sierra Leone at 31.1 percent, Niger at 30.1 percent, and Burkina Faso at 27.7 percent.

These expansions are largely attributed to post-pandemic recovery momentum, infrastructure investment, and in some cases, mineral discoveries that have boosted export potential.

However, because these countries start from relatively small economic bases, such double-digit growth contributes modestly to the continent’s overall weight in the global economy.

The outlook for Africa’s largest economies is notably less positive. Nigeria’s GDP is projected to decline by 48.3%, falling from $363.8 billion in 2023 to $188.3 billion in 2025. This decline reflects currency devaluation, heavy reliance on oil exports, and persistent policy uncertainties.

Egypt’s GDP is expected to contract by nearly 12% over the same period, largely due to high debt levels and a weakening currency. Ethiopia, once among Africa’s fastest-growing economies, is forecast to shrink by 26.5% as a result of conflict, inflationary pressures, and external debt challenges. Sudan’s GDP is also projected to fall by almost 15% amid ongoing political instability.

Despite contractions in some major markets, the continent’s economic hierarchy is expected to remain largely unchanged by 2025. South Africa is projected to remain the largest economy with $410.3 billion, followed by Egypt at $347.3 billion, Algeria at $268.9 billion, Nigeria at $188.3 billion, and Morocco at $165.8 billion.

Other significant contributors include Kenya at $131.7 billion, Ethiopia at $117.5 billion, Angola at $113.3 billion, Côte d’Ivoire at $94.5 billion, and Ghana at $88.3 billion.

Although the continent’s aggregate economic output has expanded, but per capita GDP figures remain low in much of the continent.

Sixteen African countries continue to record GDP per capita below $1,000. The Democratic Republic of Congo illustrates this disparity, with GDP exceeding $74 billion but per capita income remaining under $1,000 due to its large population. Such figures emphasize the challenge of translating economic growth into improved living standards for ordinary citizens.

Amid these challenges, some mid-sized economies are proving resilient. Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, and Morocco are all recording double-digit growth rates, supported by diversification, stability, and infrastructure development.

Côte d’Ivoire is increasingly positioning itself as a West African hub through strong performance in agriculture, cocoa processing, and services. Algeria’s 8.5% expansion, while modest, reflects steady oil revenues, though dependence on hydrocarbons remains a structural risk.

The IMF warns that Africa’s growth trajectory will depend on reforms aimed at currency stabilization, debt sustainability, and diversification away from resource dependence. The African Development Bank has also called for recalibrating GDP calculations to better capture the value of the continent’s natural resources.

Between 2023 and 2025, Africa’s economic story is one of contrasts: smaller states showing dynamism, while major economies falter under structural pressures.

Whether the continent can sustain the $2.8 trillion milestone and turn it into inclusive growth will depend on how governments manage inflation, debt, and governance challenges in the years ahead.