A key week for Nato and defence deals

Hello and welcome to the working week.

It’s summertime here at FT towers, but for all of us over the next seven days it’s summit time. The gathering of Nato member states in The Hague on Tuesday is by far the most important of these given European defence concerns and the open animosity towards the 76-year-old military alliance by US President Donald Trump. Spain also threatens to spoil the party. Optimists hope that this gathering will be a chance to rebuild faith in the institution.

Secretary-general Mark Rutte has improved the chances of a successful meeting by some adroit diplomatic manoeuvring in recent weeks. As a result, the 32 member states are expected to agree to increase their defence spending target from 2 per cent of GDP to 3.5 per cent, plus an extra 1.5 per cent on infrastructure. The difficulty for the European signatories will then be how to sell this spending increase to their domestic voters.

After Nato, most of the same European leaders (UK excepted) will move to the EU summit in Brussels, mainly to reflect on the defence talks. If the Nato meeting is a disaster, these countries could potentially have to draw up new strategies.

Sticking with Brussels, we have the EU-Canada trade summit. It is an interesting development given Trump’s shaking up of global trade alliances, but not hugely consequential. Again, the talk will revolve around weaponry as the two sides are expected to sign an agreement to join the “re-arm Europe” defence procurement scheme.

Wars currently raging will continue to grab the headlines, but cannot be diarised. FT subscribers can however join a webinar on Wednesday with FT journalists and guests answering your questions, The Israel-Iran war: how far will it go?

There is also a significant military anniversary this week for the start of a conflict that has not yet formally finished, 80 years after the event: the Korean war.

The central bankers are out in force on the speaking circuit over the next seven days. It is another thin week for economic data reports, the most notable being the rich nation comparisons in the purchasing managers’ index reports. More details below.

The tail-end of earnings season has a few big names reporting figures, such as sports brand colossus Nike and multinational clothes retailer H&M. Again the main news is likely to come away from the regulatory filings. For instance, Tesla will attempt to send a vehicle from the company’s factory in Austin, Texas to a customer’s home, according to a post by the company’s CEO Elon Musk on X on 10 June. The milestone coincides with Musk’s 54th birthday.

One more thing . . . 

It’s not just summit time. Festival season has arrived with the granddaddy of them all, Glastonbury, kicking off this week. It’s been a good year for Glasto commercially. But clearly not everyone is a music festival fan — just ask local London residents.

How do you plan to spend the next seven days? Email me at [email protected] or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, to speak at the 2025 Milwaukee Business Journal’s Mid-Year Outlook conference

• European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European parliament in Brussels

• Antonio Filosa becomes Stellantis CEO

• Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB/HSBC flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• Singapore: May consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• Results: KB Home Q2, Metcash FY, Naspers FY, Prosus FY

Tuesday

• Megan Greene, member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, to speak at NIESR on “Monetary policy implications of differences in central bank balance sheet management”

• Dave Ramsden, deputy governor, markets and banking, at the Bank of England, will be a speaker and panellist at the Barclays CEPR Monetary Policy Forum.

• Canada: May CPI inflation rate data

• Germany: June ifo Business Climate Index

• US: May state employment and unemployment figures, plus June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

• Results: BlackBerry Q1, Bunzl pre-close trading statement, Carnival Q2, FedEx Q4, SThree HY trading update, TD SYNNEX Q2

Wednesday

• Associated British Foods is expected to make an announcement about the future of its Vivergo Fuels bioethanol plant in Hull, the country’s largest. The company said the plant could close without government support after the recent UK-US trade deal allowed subsidised US ethanol into the British market.

• Speech by Bank of Japan policy board member Naoki Tamura at a meeting with local leaders in Fukushima

• Australia: May CPI inflation rate data

• France: June INSEE consumer confidence survey

• Japan: summary of opinions from last rate-setting meeting. Also, services producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Results: Babcock FY, General Mills Q4, Halfords FY, HB Fuller Q2, Liontrust Asset Management FY, Micron Technology Q3, MillerKnoll Q4/FY, PayChex Q4, ProCook FY, Steelcase Q1, Winnebago Industries Q3, Worthington Enterprises Q4

Thursday

• Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey gives a keynote speech at the British Chambers of Commerce’s annual conference, titled “Where’s the growth?”

• EU: European Central Bank General Council meeting online.

• UK: Homes England housing and BoE capital issuance statistics.

• US: Q1 GDP estimate (third time)

• Results: Acuity Q3, Inchcape interim trading update, James Latham FY, H&M HY, McCormick & Co Q2, Moonpig FY, Nike Q4, Serco pre-close trading statement, Volex FY, Walgreens Boots Alliance Q3

Friday

• Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements annual conference, including a session chaired by Federal Reserve Bank of New York president John Williams.

• US: May personal income and outlays data

• Results: Apogee Enterprises Q1

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• EU foreign affairs ministers will discuss the Russian aggression against Ukraine, after an informal exchange of views with Ukraine’s minister of foreign affairs Andrii Sybiha. The bloc’s economic sanctions against Russia in response to the illegal annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol, are due to expire today unless extended

• Belgium: EU-Canada summit in Brussels

• Italy: 47th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting begins in Milan — also the 27th meeting of the Committee for Environmental Protection — running until July 3

• Japan: Okinawa Memorial Day. 80th anniversary of the end of the Battle of Okinawa, the only land battle in Japan

• Norway: King Harald V and Sonja welcome Emmanuel and Brigitte Macron at the start of a two-day state visit by the French president and first lady

• UK: Net Zero Delivery Summit, hosted by the City of London Corporation, part of London Climate Action Week. Speakers include Lord Mayor of the City of London Alastair King

Tuesday

• China: 14th NPC Standing Committee (NPCSC), China’s senior legislative body, convenes for its 16th session, running until Friday

• Italy: Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and media personality Lauren Sanchez begin a three-day wedding party to tie the knot in Venice, one of the most high-profile weddings of the year

• Netherlands: The Hague hosts the 2025 Nato Summit, featuring heads of state and government, foreign and defence ministers. It will be the first time this gathering has occurred in the Netherlands

• UK: Bank of England governor gives evidence in Westminster to the Lords Economic Affairs Committee

Wednesday

• Indonesia: FT Live’s two-day Energy Transition Summit Asia begins at the Langham Hilton in Jakarta and online. Register here

• Korea: 75th anniversary of North Korea invading South Korea, capturing Seoul within days and pushing US and South Korean forces, operating under a United Nations banner, to the south-eastern tip of the peninsula. The fightback ended in a stalemate along the 38th parallel, with an armistice but no peace treaty

• UK: Glastonbury Festival, the largest greenfield music and performing arts festival in the world, begins at its home in the Vale of Avalon in Somerset. The main music programme begins on Friday. Sir Rod Stewart performs in the legends slot on Sunday

Thursday

• 80th anniversary of the first 50 countries signing the Charter of the United Nations, the founding document of the UN

• EU: two-day European Summit begins in Brussels

Friday

• Poland: European Council on Foreign Relations begins its two-day annual council meeting in Warsaw, where policymakers and thought leaders will gather to discuss pressing global challenges

• US: Federal Reserve publishes the results from its annual bank stress test

Saturday

• Australia: 2025 British & Irish Lions international rugby union tour of Australia opens with Western Force vs British & Irish Lions in Perth

• UK: Armed Forces Day, showing support for service families, cadets, veterans, recruits, and service personnel. Events take place across the country

• US: Tesla expected to run self-drive test from the company’s Austin factory

Sunday