A changing of the guard

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

In this year of elections, there is also (inevitably) a changing of the guard. On Tuesday, Claudia Sheinbaum becomes Mexico’s first female president. There are many challenges ahead for her, as my colleagues have noted.

That same day Nato gets a new secretary-general as former Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte replaces Jens Stoltenberg. He faces many challenges as the FT’s editorial board outlines.

The Conservative party conference is under way and it’s fair to say it is less of a draw than previous years, except for its leadership contest. Will one of the contenders perform a David Cameron? The goal for the four remaining candidates is to still be on the ballot when it is whittled down to two on October 9 and the contest is put to a vote among party members.

There are still significant elections to be had, most obviously the US presidential contest, and Tuesday will see the vice-presidential candidates duke it out on the CBS News channel. For more insight into the Republican candidate JD Vance, read Ed Luce’s recent column. Meanwhile, Inside Politics writer Stephen Bush explains why Democratic candidate Tim Walz fits the mould of many previous vice-presidential candidates, including that of Donald Trump in 2016.

On the corporate front, the week brings a thin but steady flow of results, notably Tesco, Nike, Greggs and JD Wetherspoon.

Shares in Tesco are up by a third in the past year to their highest level since late 2013. The British supermarket chain is capitalising on the woes of rivals Wm Morrison and Asda, which are struggling under the debt burdens heaped on to them by their private equity owners. Tesco has picked up a precious half-point of market share over the past year, according to Kantar Worldpanel.

Greggs is also riding high, helped by July’s very strong first-half results, which showed a 14 per cent increase in total sales, a 16 per cent advance in underlying pre-tax profit and a 19 per cent rise in the dividend. This is a trading update but investors will be keen to hear more about its app, which has been a strong driver of that growth, an initiative to increase evening opening hours and the ongoing store rollout programme.

JD Wetherspoon’s shares are broadly flat over the year, even though the pub group, with an estate of about 800 sites, is expected to report record sales for the year to July 2024. The issue is therefore profit, and in particular the impact of increased wages, utility bills and interest costs on the company’s £670mn net debt position.

The economic data run this week is limited, but will include US employment figures, German inflation figures, the final UK Q2 GDP estimate and PMI comparisons between G7 nations and China, before the latter begins its National Day public holiday. More details on all of this below.

One more thing . . .

Runners will this Saturday celebrate the 20th anniversary of the first Parkrun, which took place in Bushy park in the affluent London suburb of Teddington. Parkrun is now looking at more than 2,300 events taking place around the world with more than 9mn registered parkrunners. I’ve never been drawn to the concept of spending one of my day’s off doing one of the sports I least enjoy in a public space, but I found a more positive take on the volunteer-led phenomenon in the FT archives from markets columnist Katie Martin.

Talking of archive material, to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the iconic Lunch with the FT series, my colleagues have created a free, pop-up newsletter, providing you with a favourite lunch every Sunday through to November 17, with fresh insights from the interviewer. Sign up here.

What are your priorities this week and what are you most looking forward to in the next month? Email me at [email protected] or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends the quarterly monetary dialogue with the European parliament Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, giving her views on economic and monetary developments and discussing economic and financial developments
Witan Investment Trust holds a first general shareholder meeting to vote on the proposed recommended winding-up of the company and combination with Alliance Trust. A second shareholders’ meeting is scheduled for October 9
China: Caixin September manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data
Germany: September consumer price index (CPI) and harmonised index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rate data
Japan: August preliminary industrial production figures,
UK: revised estimate of Q2 GDP. Also, Nationwide September House Price Index.
Results: 3i Infrastructure pre-close update, Alliance Pharma HY, Carnival Q3, Playtech HY

Tuesday

Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the CBI Economic Growth Board
Nationwide’s acquisition of Virgin Money UK is expected to become effective after the deal was approved by shareholders at the building society’s annual meeting in July
Darktrace acquisition by Thoma Bravo is expected to become effective, after shareholders approved the deal at a general meeting in June
Canada, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB/HSBC September manufacturing PMI data
China National Day. Financial markets closed
EU: preliminary September eurozone HICP inflation figures
Mexico: Inauguration Day. Financial markets closed
US: fiscal year begins
Results: Greggs trading update, James Halstead FY, McCormick Q3, Nike Q1, PayChex Q1

Wednesday

China: National Day Golden Week continues. Financial markets closed
India: Mahatma Gandhi’s birthday. Financial markets closed
Israel: Rosh Hashana Eve, Jewish New Year Eve. Financial markets closed
Russia: final Q2 GDP estimate
Results: ConAgra Brands Q1, JD Sports HY, Lamb Weston Q1, Saga HY, Topps Tiles full-year trading statement

Thursday

Canada, Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global/HCOB September services PMI data
China: National Day Golden Week continues. Financial markets closed
Germany: National Unity Day, marking the anniversary of reunification in 1990
Israel: Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year. Financial markets closed
UK: Zoopla September House Price Index
Results: Constellation Brands Q2, Tesco HY, SSE notification of close, SSP Q4 trading update

Friday

Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, UK: S&P Global/HCOB September construction PMI data
India: HSBC September services PMI data
US: September employment figures
Results: JD Wetherspoon FY, Yaskawa Electric Q2

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

UN General Assembly debate concludes in New York
France: trial begins for French party leader Marine Le Pen, her father and predecessor Jean-Marie Le Pen and 25 others for alleged misappropriation of EU funds to pay the assistants of MEPs who were in fact working for their party, Rassemblement National, between 2009 and 2017. Marine Le Pen denies the allegations. The damage allegedly amounts to €6.8mn
UK: annual election of the Lord Mayor of the City of London, an ancient title which now involves promoting British financial and business services globally

Tuesday

Belgium: Nato ceremony to mark the transition to its new secretary-general, former Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte
Canada: government imposes 100 per cent surtax on all Chinese-made EVs, including electric and certain hybrid passenger automobiles, trucks, buses and delivery vans
France: strikes and protests expected across France, backed by trade union CGT, over President Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to appoint Nouveau Front Populaire candidate Lucie Castets as prime minister
Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum assumes office as the country’s first female president
US: 100th birthday of former president Jimmy Carter. Also, televised debate between Republican vice-presidential nominee, senator JD Vance, and Democratic vice presidential nominee, Minnesota governor Tim Walz

Wednesday

Annular solar eclipse, this year appearing almost entirely over the Pacific Ocean, but also visible from Easter Island and a small portion of Argentina and Chile

Thursday

Rosh Hashana, aka Jewish New Year, with customs including the sounding of the shofar and eating symbolic foods such as apples dipped in honey
Brazil: G20 environment and climate ministers meeting begins in Rio
UAE: 2024 ICC Women’s T20 World Cup cricket tournament opens, featuring 10 teams including Bangladesh, Australia, England, New Zealand and India
UK: the main flu and Covid-19 vaccination campaign commences in England

Friday

France: Francophonie Summit, a biennial meeting of heads of state and government from French-speaking nations, begins in Villers-Cotterets

Saturday

UK: Claire Hanna is ratified as the new leader of Northern Ireland’s Social Democratic and Labour party at its annual conference. She was the only candidate to have declared an interest and replaces Colum Eastwood, who announced his resignation in August
UK: 20th anniversary of the first Parkrun, the free 5km running event organised by volunteers
US: Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump holds a campaign rally at Butler Farm Show, Pennsylvania, the site of the July 13 assassination attempt