USD
- The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
expected at the last meeting while dropping the tightening bias in the
statement but adding a slight pushback against a March rate cut. - The US CPI beat
expectations for the second consecutive month with the disinflationary trend
reversing. - The US PPI beat
expectations across the board by a big margin. - The US Jobless Claims beat
expectations with the data remaining steady. - The latest US PMIs
increased further from the prior month with the Manufacturing PMI beating
expectations and the Services PMI missing. - The US Retail Sales missed
expectations across the board by a big margin. - The market now expects the first rate cut in June.
AUD
- The
RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected with the central bank
maintaining the usual tightening bias and data dependent language. - The
recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
the board which was a welcome development for the RBA. - The
latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
margin. - The
wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
growth in Australia remains strong. - The
latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling
back into contraction while the Services PMI jumped back into expansion. - The
market expects the first rate cut in August.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
AUDUSD Daily
On the
daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD bounced on the key support zone
around the 0.6520 level where we had also the confluence with the
moving averages. This is
where the buyers stepped in to target a rally into the 0.6623 level. The
sellers, on the other hand, will need the price to break below the support zone
to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into new lows.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
AUDUSD 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is
now near a downward trendline where we
can find the red 21 moving average for confluence. This is where the sellers
will likely step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a
break below the support zone with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the
bullish bets into the 0.6623 level.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
AUDUSD 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have also the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level adding extra confluence to the
trendline. What happens here will likely decide where the pair will go in the
next few days as a strong rejection should lead to a drop into new lows, while
a break higher will likely trigger a rally into the 0.6623 level.
Upcoming Events
This week we have some important economic data on the
agenda. We begin today with the release of the US Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow
we will get the latest Australian monthly CPI report. On Thursday, we will see
the Australian Retail Sales and later in the day, the US PCE and the latest US
Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US
ISM Manufacturing PMI.
