Spotlight on SmartCon | Nasdaq

You specialize in technical analysis for Nasdaq’s Market Intelligence Desk team. Can you share what the key differences are between technical analysis and fundamental analysis when evaluating stocks?

When evaluating stocks, technical analysis and fundamental analysis represent two distinct approaches. Technical analysis focuses on historical price movements with a focus on trends, momentum, relative strength, and trading volume in order to filter out “noise” and capture the “message of the market” with the goal of forecasting future price behavior. It relies heavily on absolute and relative strength charts, price patterns, and indicators such as moving averages and measures of momentum to identify investment opportunities across all time frames.

In contrast, fundamental analysis seeks to determine a stock’s intrinsic value by examining a company’s financial health, management quality, industry position, and broader economic conditions. This method involves analyzing financial statements, earnings reports, and valuation metrics like the price-to-earnings ratio, and is typically favored by long-term investors aiming to identify undervalued o stocks or stocks with high growth potential. While technical analysis emphasizes market sentiment and timing, fundamental analysis prioritizes business performance and long-term growth potential.

What is the significance of support and resistance levels in technical analysis, and how are they determined?

Support and resistance levels are fundamental concepts in technical analysis that help traders identify potential price points where a stock may reverse direction or pause its current trend. These levels reflect market psychology and can signal potential entry or exit points for trades. Traders often use prior highs/lows, candlestick patterns, moving averages, or historical volume at price measures to identify these levels. When a stock breaks through support or resistance, it may indicate a shift in market sentiment and lead to a continuation of the trend, making these levels critical for decision-making in short- and long-term trading strategies.

Can you explain how volume indicators, such as the On-Balance Volume (OBV), can provide insight into market sentiment?

Volume indicators like On-Balance Volume (OBV) play a crucial role in technical analysis by offering insight into market sentiment and the strength behind price movements. OBV works by adding volume on days when the stock closes higher and subtracting volume on days when it closes lower. The idea is that volume precedes price, so if OBV is rising while the price is flat or declining, it may signal that buying pressure is building and a price increase could follow. Volume at Price (VAP) is a tool that shows how much trading volume has occurred at specific price level (y-axis), rather than across time intervals (x-axis) like traditional volume bars. It helps traders identify price levels where significant buying or selling has taken place, which, often times, will act as future support or resistance zones.

How can technical analysis be used to predict stock price movements?

Technical analysis can be used to predict stock price movements by studying historical price data and trading volume to identify patterns, trends, and key levels that may influence future behavior. The theory is that market psychology tends to repeat itself, and price movements often follow recognizable formations. Technical analysis aims to capture the “message of the market,” with the goal of identifying securities that are likely to outperform/underperform in order to best position one’s portfolio.

Technical analysis offers several strengths that make it a valuable tool for traders and investors. It provides a systematic (objective) approach to evaluating price trends and market sentiment, allowing users to identify potential entry and exit points based on historical patterns and indicators. Tools like moving averages, volume analysis, and support/resistance levels help traders make timely decisions across near-, medium-, and long-term time frames. Technical analysis is applicable across asset classes making it highly versatile. However, it also has limitations. It does not account for a company’s underlying financial health, external economic and regulatory factors, or changes in correlations. As a result, technical analysis is most effective when used in conjunction with other methods, such as fundamental analysis, to provide a more comprehensive view of market behavior.