investingLive Americas market news wrap: December Fed cut odds continue to fall

Markets:

• Gold down $91 to $4079
• WTI crude oil up $1.23 to $59.97
• US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to 4.15%
• S&P 500 flat
• Bitcoin down $3896 to $94,906
• NZD leads, CHF lags

Implied odds of a Fed cut in December were at 66% early this week but fell yesterday and continued to slide today. They’re now at just 40% despite no real change in Fed commentary. There are still some vociferous hawks and doves but nothing has really changed on communication. It’s like the market finally went back and listened to what Powell said on October 30.

In any case, it was another choppy day. US equity futures were deeply red and stocks slumped hard at the open, with the Nasdaq falling 1.5%. But the dip buying was aggressive from the bottom, led by Nvidia and it recovered and more. There were solid gains midway though the day that eventually faded into a flat close. Micron, Nvidia and Microsoft were among the biggest winners while Netflix and Paypal were laggards.

In FX, USD/JPY followed the path of equities as the pair slumped 75 pips in short order only to completely recover. The pair is near the best levels since January.

The euro rose early but couldn’t get above yesterday’s high of 1.1655 and sagged back to 1.1620.

Cable was bounced around by a report that there won’t be any income tax hikes after all but that weighed heavily on gilts and the pound was down 20 pips on the day in very choppy trade.

Commodity currencies made small gains.

In commodity markets, oil and gold headed in opposite directions. Crude rallied to finish roughly flat on the week while gold fell $92 but still managed to finish the week $80 higher.

A big loser on the day and week was bitcoin, which is trading near the lowest since May and fell nearly 4% on the day. It had plumbed lows near $94K early in the day and bounced with risk sentiment but the sellers returned late to carve out new lows. It will be under the microscope over the weekend.