OPEC+ likely to agree to another production increase on Sunday – report

It’s a bull market in many markets at the moment but certainly not in oil, which is likely to get more bad news on Sunday.

Initial reports about Saudi Arabia pushing for a further production hike circulated on Friday and lowered crude by $1.51 but it’s likely to fall even more if/when the hike is delivered.

Reuters reports that Eight OPEC+ countries will likely hike output but probably less than in October, as summer driving season ends. The group has added 2.5 mbpd this year in a steady stream quota jumps since April, likely under pressure from the Trump administration.

The risk is that sub-$60 oil prices cripple new drilling in the US shale industry. There are already signs of that as the US drilling rig count has plunged even further this year.

Since US crude is such a short-cycle and decline rates so high, that’s an ominous sign for 2026 US production and will very likely mean a backfire of the ‘drill, baby, drill’ Trump admin talking point.

OPEC is still holding back 1.65 mbpd as part of regular production curbs and not the ‘voluntary’ ones they finished unwinding with last month’s announcement.

“Talks are focusing on unwinding that whole cut in gradual monthly increments,” two sources quoted by Reuters said. They differed on the volume of crude that could return from 135K bpd to 350K bpd.

In the macro picture, the drop in oil prices is a good thing for short-term inflation and should help to counteract tariff price pressures but below $60 (and likely even $70) is like holding a balloon underwater.

Update: Two Reuters sources now say that OPEC+ has agreed in principle to at least 135k bpd.