Weekly update on interest rate expectations

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 43 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 143 bps

• ECB: 30 bps (81% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 143 bps

• BoE: 44 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 143 bps

• BoC: 81 bps (99% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 180 bps

• RBA: 7 bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 64 bps

• RBNZ: 55 bps (78% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 163 bps

• SNB: 29 bps (82% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 73 bps

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 7 bps (93% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 33 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.



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