China August: Retail sales +2.1% y/y (expected +2.5) Industrial production +4.5% y/y (4.8)

China retail sales, industrial output, investment data for August 2024 – another round of disappointing results.

Retail Sales +2.1% (YoY) (Aug)

• expected 2.5%, prior 2.7%

Industrial Production +4.5% (YoY) (Aug)

• expected 4.8%, prior 5.1%

Fixed Asset Investment +3.4$(YTD) (YoY) (Aug)

• expected 3.5%, prior 3.6%

Unemployment 5.3%

• expected 5.2%, prior 5.2%

Also published were home prices data, which fell at their sharpest rate in 9 years, at -5.3% y/y in August, compared with the previous month’s -4.9%.

• For the m/m, down 0.7% (July was also -0.7% m/m)

China’s property sector continues to be a black hole for the economy.

Piecemeal stimulus looks set to continue:

China has a growth target of ‘around 5%’ this year. China invariably hits its growth target, officially anyway.

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China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) painted an upbeat picture.

• In August, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. All regions and departments adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, strengthened macro-regulation and strove to promote high-quality development. As a result, the production and demands sustained a recovery, employment and prices were basically stable, and high-quality development continued to move ahead. The national economy maintained stability in general while making steady progress.

These are the main headings from the statement:

1. Industrial Production Increased Steadily with Fast Growth in Equipment Manufacturing and High-Tech Manufacturing.

2. Service Sector Continued to Recover and Modern Services Developed Well.

3. Market Sales Kept Increasing and Online Retail Sales Grew Rapidly.

4. Investment in Fixed Assets Scaled up and Investment in High-Tech Industries Grew Fast.

5. Imports and Exports of Goods Grew Fast and Trade Structure Continued to Optimize.

6. Employment Was Generally Stable and Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate Increased Slightly.

7. Increase of Consumer Price Expanded and Producer Prices for Industrial Products Declined.