Eurozone faces zero mortgage lending growth for first time in a decade

Good morning. It’s a busy start of the week for tech, with a new iPhone model expected and the US government bringing another antitrust case against Google. We also have an update on how the sector is doing outside the AI boom. More on this below.

But first, we turn to Europe, where banks are set to record zero growth in mortgage lending for the first time in a decade this year, down from 4.9 per cent in 2022, according to an EY analysis of data from the European Banking Authority and national banks in Germany, France, Spain and Italy. The previous lowest growth rate was 0.2 per cent in 2014.

Borrowers have been put off taking out new mortgages in the past couple of years as the European Central Bank raised interest rates to record levels after an extended period of negative rates. EY expects Eurozone mortgage lending to recover in 2025, with 3.1 per cent growth and a 4.2 per cent rise the year after as borrowing costs fall and inflation slows. More details here.

Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Apple: The iPhone 16 is expected to launch with a next-generation chip based on Arm’s newest design architecture, people familiar with the matter told the Financial Times.

• Google: The US Department of Justice will face the search giant’s parent group Alphabet in court over allegations it exerts monopolistic control of digital advertising.

• Companies: Oracle has first-quarter results, while Brian Niccol starts his tenure as Starbucks’ CEO.

Five more top stories

1. Enthusiasm about artificial intelligence masks weakness across most of the technology sector, with many companies “still in a recession” following a slowdown that started in 2022, according to investors and analysis of recent financial reports. Read the full story.

2. Exclusive: Volkswagen’s $5bn tie-up with US electric vehicle start-up Rivian has sparked dismay within Cariad, the German carmaker’s software division, whose top executives were sidelined in the sudden change in strategy. Patricia Nilsson has more from Frankfurt.

3. Iran has sent “hundreds” of ballistic missiles to Russia in what Kyiv officials said marked a “serious escalation” of Tehran’s support for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia is likely to use the missile to strike northern cities close to the border and troops along the frontline, the officials said. Here’s more on the “huge threat” posed by the weapons.

• Kursk incursion: Ukraine’s offensive has triggered “questions” among the Russian elite about the point of the war, the chiefs of MI6 and the CIA told the FT Weekend festival in London.

4. Greece has said it will crack down on short-term holiday rentals and cruise ship traffic as part of measures to curb excessive tourism. With the country on track to report a record number of visitors for the year, industry leaders warn the restrictions could harm a crucial economic sector.

5. Kamala Harris is under pressure to put on a strong performance during her debate against Donald Trump tomorrow after polling suggested her momentum in the presidential contest could be fading. Surveys show the race is neck-and-neck, with voters unsure of where the Democrat stands on election issues.

Join Swamp Notes writer Rana Foroohar and other FT experts for a live webinar on Thursday as they assess both presidential candidates after the first Harris-Trump debate. Register for free.

The Big Read

Announced in 2019, the EU’s sprawling Green Deal climate law aims to reach net zero emissions by 2050 and rewire the bloc’s economy into one based on recycling, reuse and longevity. But it has also turned out to be a bureaucratic machine that has spawned reams of legislation that businesses are struggling to implement, or even understand.

We’re also reading . . . 

• FT MiM ranking: Masters in management graduates in finance jobs have enjoyed a sharp rise in pay recently, our ranking of programmes shows.

• Affordable homes: The unreachable American dream of home ownership could be a decisive issue in the presidential contest, writes Ruchir Sharma.

• Payment fraud: New UK rules that oblige banks to compensate scammed customers are a missed opportunity to deal head-on with a rampant new kind of crime, writes Patrick Jenkins.

• Free speech: Repelled by the characters of those who decry censorship, we have failed to value rights that are fundamental to liberal democracy, writes Jemima Kelly.

Chart of the day

The rising price of new cancer drugs is putting pressure on healthcare budgets. Global spending on oncology drugs grew to $223bn last year, according to research from the IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science, which expects the figure to jump to $409bn by 2028.

Take a break from the news

Helen Fisher, who died last month aged 79, left a striking legacy: legitimising love as a subject worthy of scholarly inquiry while somehow not diminishing its magic. Anjana Ahuja remembers the anthropologist who took her insights out of the laboratory and into online dating.

Additional contributions from Benjamin Wilhelm