Moving away from its 200 day moving average
The USDCAD earlier in the day fell below its 200 day moving average at 1.35109. Post the retail sales data, the pair continues its move to the downside and in the process is running further away from its 200 day moving average. There were other attempts to break below the 200 day moving average in July, but each of those efforts ran out of steam fairly quickly.
The pair is currently trading at 1.3446. That is the lowest level since June 11.
Looking at the daily chart below, way back in February and March there was a price gap between 1.34635 and 1.35169. The price has moved outside of that gap in trading today (see yellow area chart below).
Drilling in to the hourly chart below, the 1.3485 to 1.34907 area has been home to swing lows in June and July. Earlier in the session, buyers leaned against that level on the 1st test and bounced modestly before breaking below over the last 3 hours and sending the price to the downside. That area is now a risk defining level for the sellers.
In addition, the move to the downside has cracked below the 61.8% retracement of the range since the June 10 low. That level currently comes in at 1.34674. Stay below the 61.8% retracement (and the aforementioned swing area, keeps the sellers in control.