USDCAD pushes higher but runs into resistance. Watch the old ceiling for short-term clues

The Canada’s April 2025 jobs report showed a modest employment gain of 7.4K, beating the 2.5K forecast but coming off a sharp decline of 32.6K the prior month. The headline unemployment rate rose to 6.9%—above the 6.8% expected and the highest since 2021—partly due to a slight rise in labor force participation.

Full-time employment rebounded with a gain of 31.5K, but part-time jobs fell by 24.2K. Manufacturing employment dropped by 31K, and average hourly wages for permanent employees held steady at 3.5% year-over-year.

While the uptick in full-time work was encouraging, the report was weighed down by a rise in joblessness and a 37K temporary election-related hiring boost that is expected to reverse in May. Overall, the report was mixed with a slightly negative tilt.

Tthe USDCAD has seen little price action since the report. Technicallly, the pair continues its upward push after failing to gain downside momentum earlier this week. The pair has broken through prior resistance at 1.38917–1.3904, turning that area into support. Holding above this new floor is crucial to maintain the bullish bias. A move back below would be a near-term disappointment for buyers.

The next key challenge lies in the 1.3924–1.3933 swing area. Earlier today, the price did move above that area, but could not sustain the bullish momentum. To keep the momentum going, the price must not only break above this zone but also hold above it. They 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April high remains as a target that needs to be broken to show the buyers are taking back more control. The 200 day moving average is also near that level just above the 1.4000 level.

If bulls succeed, the next targets on the topside come in at:

• 1.3977 – swing high from mid-April

• 1.4000 zone – where the 38.2% retracement of the broader move down and the 200-day moving average converge

With rising support and fading downside momentum, the path of least resistance currently leans higher, but follow-through above the 1.3933 level is essential to open the door for the 1.4000 target.

Key Levels:

• Support: 1.38917–1.3904 (prior ceiling, now a floor). Move below would disappoint buyers looking for more upside.

• Resistance: 1.3924–1.3933 (must break and hold)

• Upside targets: 1.3977, then 1.4000

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