Anecdotes like Mr. Geismann’s, nevertheless, aren’t simple to interpret. Maybe Schuchart and firms like it might have discovered one other method to make ends meet, or would have rehired staff shortly as soon as development tasks resumed.
Economists have tried to reply that query utilizing information. Mr. Autor in contrast corporations with just below 500 staff — which may qualify for this system’s authentic model — with these simply above that dimension, which couldn’t. If the loans had been a giant assist, then the smaller corporations ought to have retained many extra of their staff. As a substitute, Mr. Autor discovered little distinction between the 2 teams.
However some economists argue that such analysis understates this system’s influence as a result of it fails to deal with the smallest companies, which had been much less prone to have giant money reserves or different financing.
One paper, primarily based on a survey of companies in Oakland, Calif., discovered that these receiving P.P.P. loans had been 20.5 % extra prone to say they anticipated to outlive six months — however that the comparatively higher optimism was restricted to companies with fewer than 5 staff.
Robert Bartlett, one of many Oakland examine’s authors, mentioned economists like Mr. Autor is perhaps proper that P.P.P. saved fewer jobs than hoped. “However for these small companies, I believe it helped them maintain their doorways open,” he mentioned. “I’m satisfied of that.” A lot of these companies, he famous, are in poor neighborhoods or are owned by racial or ethnic minorities.
Daniel G. Guerra Jr. based AltusLearn, which offers coaching and compliance programs to medical staff, in 2013. By final 12 months the corporate, primarily based in Madison, Wis., had six staff and was on monitor for a 12 months of serious progress.
As a substitute, when the pandemic started, medical facilities halted just about all nonurgent care and canceled coaching.