OPEC sees a nearly-balanced oil market in 2026

OPEC is out with its monthly report and sees a marginal surplus of 20k bpd next year, assuming it keeps pumping at the October level. That contrasts with last month’s report that had a deficit of 50k bpd and the Sept report at -700k bpd.

OPEC hiked production quotas by 137k bpd in each of those months but the October official data shows that output actually fell 73k bpd in October, led by a drop in Kazakhstan.

OPEC plans to pause production hikes in Q1 2026 due to low prices, the seasonal drop in demand and fears of oversupply. WTI crude oil is down 87-cents to $60.16 today.