Up, down and up day.
The GBPUSD has had a up, down and back up day. In the process, the pair tested it’s 100 hour moving average on the upside at 1.25212, moved down to retest the 50% retracement of the move up from the April 7 low at 1.24042. That level was also near the low from trading yesterday. We are now back higher with the pair looking toward the 1.2500. The price is currently trading at 1.2495.
The move to the upside has taken the price back above its 200 hour moving average at 1.2463. The last 2 days has seen the price move below and back above that level a few times. Trading above tilt the intraday bias a little more to the upside. However, the more relevant up and down extremes over the last few days has been the 100 hour moving average above and the 50% retracement below.
For the week, the high on late Tuesday extended above a topside trend line but only briefly as the pairs 200 day moving average stalled the rally at the 1.26468 level. From that high, the buyers turned to sellers and started to take out technical levels on the downside including an upward sloping trendline on Wednesday, the 100 hour moving average (after some waffling below and back above), the 200 hour MA.
The 50% retracement prove to be the downside antithesis to the 200 day MA above for the week.
For your guide, the 50% retracement of the week’s trading range comes in at 1.2526. That is just above the current 100 hour moving average at 1.25212.
With the price above the 200 hour moving average but below the 100 hour moving average, it’s hard to give the nod one-way the other on a Friday. I would still expect sellers in the 1.2521 – 26 area with stops above. Intraday watch the 200 hour moving average at 1.2463 to see if buyers lean against that level. If that level does not give way to the downside, the retest of the two day resistance area at the 100 hour MA, will likely be in the cards for the day.