FX markets in for bumpy ride over next three months – Reuters poll

“Currencies are in for a bumpy experience with already heightened volatility anticipated to extend over the subsequent three months within the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” per the most recent Reuters ballot performed throughout February 28 to March03.

The analysts additionally forecast “extra ache for the battered ruble,” the survey confirmed.

Key quotes

Volatility spiked on Wednesday to ranges not seen for the reason that begin of the COVID-19 pandemic, in keeping with Deutsche Financial institution.

That pattern is anticipated to proceed within the close to time period, with over 90% of respondents to a further query within the Feb. 28-March 3 ballot of forex strategists anticipating volatility to both enhance or enhance considerably within the coming three months.

Median forecasts of over 60 respondents confirmed little change in analysts’ expectations in contrast with the February ballot, suggesting many forecasters haven’t but labored out the broader FX market implications of armed battle in Europe.

The yen and the franc are additionally forecast to commerce barely decrease in a 12 months, and commodity currencies to outshine them.

The Aussie greenback and Kiwi greenback are anticipated to achieve over 2.3% and 6.0%, respectively, and the Canadian greenback over 2.5%.

Requested how low the rouble would fall to this month, 11 strategists returned a median of 125/$. Forecasts ranged from 120-150/$.

The lira was forecast to plunge one other 20% within the subsequent 12 months.

Additionally learn: The Russian attack on Ukraine roils the financial markets –Traders move to the safety of US treasuries