Tough Rice Futures
Rice futures within the July contract is down 10 cents this Friday afternoon in Chicago, presently buying and selling at 13.23, wanting to interrupt out to the upside, for my part.
I am not concerned, nonetheless, I can be recommending a bullish place if costs shut above 13.60 whereas then inserting the stop-loss beneath the February sixteenth low of 13.06 as the danger is round $1,200 per contract plus slippage and fee. The grain market throughout the board stays very robust as we’re hitting multi-year highs. I believe rice will begin to be a part of the celebration because the volatility will definitely come again, particularly as we enter the summer season months. Traditionally talking, rice can expertise great worth swings. The danger/reward is in your favor to take a bullish place.
I consider costs are bottoming out across the 13 stage, so maintain a detailed eye on this market as we might be house quickly. Costs are buying and selling above their 20 and 100-day shifting common, telling you that the pattern is to the upside. I believe the draw back could be very restricted. You probably have been following my previous blogs, you perceive that every one of my commerce suggestions are to the upside as quantitative easing ought to proceed to push costs larger.
TREND: MIXED – HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVWERAGE
Espresso Futures
Espresso futures within the Could contract broke a four-day profitable streak ending decrease by round 155 factors at 133.15 a pound as costs hit a four-week excessive this week as a long-term backside seems to have been established, for my part. I’ve been recommending a bullish place over the past month from across the 126 stage. In the event you took that commerce, proceed to put the cease loss on the 106 space as an exit technique. Nevertheless, in subsequent week’s commerce, I’ll elevate the stop-loss; due to this fact, the financial threat can be lowered.
Espresso costs at the moment are buying and selling above their 20 and 100-day shifting common with the following main stage of resistance between 135 / 140, and I believe that can be damaged within the coming days forward. Basically talking, a decline in Brazil’s espresso exports and extreme dryness in Brazil continues to assist beneficial properties in espresso. Cafe on Tuesday reported that Brazil’s March complete espresso exports (inexperienced, roasted, and soluble) fell -1.6% y/y to three,438,538 baggage. Somar Meteorologia reported that rain final week in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica rising area, measured 4.7 mm, or solely 22% of the historic common.
Espresso costs even have assist from provide considerations after Citigroup mentioned final Tuesday that arabica espresso would have a “sizable” deficit of -7.5 mln baggage for the 2021/22 crop cycle. Espresso costs even have assist on account of dry circumstances in Brazil.
I even have bullish suggestions in cotton and orange juice whereas watching sugar proceed to climb larger. I consider sugar costs traditionally look very low cost, and I see no purpose to brief any of the mushy commodities, so keep lengthy.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE
Orange Juice Futures
Orange juice futures within the Could contract is presently buying and selling larger by 70 factors at 114.70 as costs are proper close to a four-week excessive.
You probably have been following my previous blogs, you perceive that I’ve been recommending a bullish place from the 110 stage. In the event you took that commerce, proceed to put the cease at 99 as an exit technique as I consider a long-term backside has taken place.
I’ve bullish suggestions in espresso and cotton as I believe the mushy commodities proceed to climb larger all through 2021 as I see no purpose to be brief presently. The subsequent main stage of resistance stands across the 120 stage. If that’s damaged, I believe there might be vital room to run to the upside because the volatility stays very low regardless of immediately’s almost 3% achieve. Juice costs at the moment are buying and selling above their 20-day however nonetheless under their 100-day shifting common, which stands on the 117 stage as that might be touched within the coming days forward. I believe your entire mushy commodity sector will proceed to march larger weekly.
TREND: HIGHER – MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW
Pure Gasoline Futures
Pure fuel futures within the June contract is presently buying and selling larger by 2 factors or 1.50% at 2.76. If costs shut at this stage, I can be recommending a bullish place whereas then inserting the stop-loss beneath the December twenty eighth low of two.41 as the danger could be round $3,300 per giant contract or $800 per mini contract plus slippage and fee.
In the event you take a look at the month-to-month chart, it seems like pure fuel costs bottomed as costs at the moment are buying and selling above their 20 and 100-day shifting common. The pattern has turned as your entire commodity sector has caught fireplace over the past week. You probably have been following my previous blogs, you perceive that I have been making a variety of counter-trend suggestions as I assumed costs turned too low cost.
The volatility actually will begin to enhance as we enter the summer season months as costs bottomed out across the 2.55 stage as I nonetheless assume we may commerce as much as the latest excessive, which was hit on February 18th on the 3.08 space within the coming weeks forward so be a purchaser. Be certain that while you spend money on the commodity markets that you simply threat 2% of your account steadiness on any given commerce as the correct cash administration approach.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: INCREASING
Cotton Futures
Cotton futures within the Could contract settled final Friday in New York at 82.40 whereas presently buying and selling at 84.16, up about 175 factors for the buying and selling week, persevering with its bullish momentum as costs at the moment are buying and selling at a 3 week excessive.
I’ve been recommending a bullish place over the past month or so from across the 79.00 stage as this was a counter-trend advice. I assumed costs had been overdone to the draw back whereas inserting the cease loss at 66.00 as an exit technique. I’ll proceed to maintain that cease at that stage within the brief time period.
Cotton costs at the moment are buying and selling above their 20 and 100-day shifting common because the pattern has turned to the upside. I nonetheless consider that 95 won’t be the contract excessive in 2021. The complete commodity sector has caught fireplace throughout the board, rallying considerably this week as there may be an excessive amount of cash economically talking because it needs to be positioned someplace.
I even have bullish suggestions in orange juice and low, and I proceed to speak about sugar costs being traditionally low cost. I believe there is no purpose to be brief that commodity, so keep lengthy the softs. I nonetheless assume there may be vital room to run for cotton costs.
TREND: HIGHER – MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH
Cocoa Futures
Cocoa futures within the July contract is buying and selling larger for the sixth consecutive session after settling final Friday in New York at 2387 whereas presently buying and selling at 2466, up about 80 factors for the buying and selling week as costs are proper at a 3 week excessive.
Costs are buying and selling above their 20-day shifting common however barely under their 100-day, which stands on the 2500 stage, which might be damaged in subsequent week’s commerce. I believe costs have lastly bottomed out and look to maneuver larger. The chart construction is stable, however I’ll look forward to it to enhance, which can take a bit of extra time. Nevertheless, I can’t take a brief place as I believe the draw back is proscribed. In the event you take a look at the month-to-month chart, the 2350 stage has been held on a number of events, so look to be a purchaser within the coming days.
The mushy commodity markets proceed to rally as I’ve many suggestions in that sector. I believe cocoa will begin to be a part of the celebration quickly because the quantitative easing that has taken place in america ought to proceed to push costs larger all through 2021. Cocoa, traditionally talking, will be one of the vital risky commodities. I believe that scenario will come to fruition quickly, so ensure you place the correct quantity of contracts while you do get entangled.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH
Mexican Peso Futures
The Mexican Peso within the June contract settled final Friday at 4928 whereas presently buying and selling at 4990 up about 60 factors for the buying and selling week, persevering with its bullish momentum as costs are proper close to a three-month excessive.
I’ve been recommending a bullish place over the past a number of weeks from across the 4955 stage. In the event you took that commerce, proceed to put the stop-loss at 4575 as an exit technique. Nevertheless, the chart construction will enhance subsequent week; due to this fact, the financial threat can be lowered because the cease loss can be raised considerably.
The Peso is buying and selling above its 20 and 100-day shifting common because the pattern stays to the upside, with the following main stage of resistance standing across the 51 space. I nonetheless assume there might be vital room to run to the upside.
Oil costs proceed to stay above the $60 stage because the Mexican financial system is predicated on how excessive or low oil costs go. That’s experiencing a bullish pattern with many different commodities presently. In the event you missed the commerce, look forward to some kind of sell-off earlier than getting into, due to this fact decreasing the financial threat.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW
Silver Meal Futures
Silver futures within the Could contract is buying and selling larger for the 4th consecutive session, up one other $0.15 at 26.11 an oz after settling final Friday in New York at 25.25 up almost $0.90 for the buying and selling week as costs have now hit a 4 week excessive.
Silver is buying and selling above its 20 and 100-day shifting common because it seems like a attainable double backside might have occurred across the 24 stage. I’m presently not concerned, and I am kicking myself as I used to be initially recommending a counter-trend commerce on the $24 stage, however I chickened out and moved on.
I see completely no purpose to be brief silver or any commodity at current. I nonetheless assume the $30 stage can be breached someday all through 2021 as quantitative easing continues to push costs larger weekly. Volatility stays excessive as that scenario may change into extra violent within the coming weeks forward, particularly as the value escalates to the upside. If you’re lengthy a futures contract, keep lengthy.
The U.S. greenback has hit a one-month low, and I believe it could have topped out within the brief time period. That could be a elementary bullish issue for larger silver costs as your entire sector stays bullish, particularly in the event you take a look at platinum, palladium, and copper.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH
What do I imply once I discuss chart construction and why do I believe it’s so essential when deciding to enter or exit a commerce? I outline chart construction as a sluggish grinding up or down pattern with low volatility and no chart gaps. Most of the nice traits that develop have excellent chart construction with many low proportion day by day strikes over a course of not less than 4 weeks thus permitting you to enter a market permitting you to put a cease loss comparatively shut on account of small strikes thus decreasing threat. Charts which have violent up and down swings are usually not thought of to have stable chart construction as I like to put my stops at 10-day highs or 10-day lows and if the charts have a good sample that can permit the dealer to attenuate threat which is what buying and selling is all about and if the chart has huge swings your cease can be additional away permitting the potential for bigger financial loss.
If you’re in search of a futures dealer be at liberty to contact Michael Seery at 630-408-3325 and he can be more than pleased that will help you along with your buying and selling or go to www.seeryfutures.com
Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
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There’s a substantial threat of loss in futures, futures choice and foreign currency trading. Moreover, Seery Futures isn’t accountable for the accuracy of the knowledge contained on linked websites. Buying and selling futures and choices is Not applicable for each investor. My opinion on this weblog are for basic info use solely and are usually not meant as a proposal or solicitation with respect to the acquisition or sale of any futures or choice contracts.
