EUR/USD rose to a high of 1.1294 earlier but ran into resistance from the 100-hour moving average
Although the pair firmed a little earlier in the session, it is back to trading at flat levels now as sellers are still putting up a defense at key near-term levels.
The nudge higher earlier ran into resistance from the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 1.1292 and also the 50.0 retracement level @ 1.1291 from the swing move lower yesterday.
The former is more of a key level to watch in my view with the latter just adding some minor resistance for sellers to lean on for the time being.
Beyond that, further resistance is seen at the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 1.1308.
For now, price action is settling back into the brief consolidation phase around 1.1250-60 levels. Sellers may be keeping a more bearish near-term bias but they are also struggling to try and chase a further downside move this week.
The lows around 1.1213-27 remain a key region to watch in that regard and unless sellers can break below that, buyers are still not really out of it yet for the time being.
The risk mood remains a key thing to watch and for now, stocks are faring better than in Asia Pacific trading but that hasn’t translated to a significant decline in the dollar.
The near-term levels above may be helping in that regard but I reckon there are still some jitters in the market as we await another fresh update on coronavirus cases in the US – which sparked some risk aversion in trading yesterday.
For the euro, Friday will also be a big day to be mindful about with the European Council meeting on the EU recovery fund proposal set to begin – but this may just be seen as a key starting point for talks to stretch on into July.